Monthly Archives: August 2021

Using Private Sector Data to Forecast Future CPI Moves

Back in early August, my old colleague James Montier and I released a White Paper on inflation. In it we argued that our baseline scenario was that we would see transitory inflation caused by the extreme supply shocks caused by … Continue reading

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Podcast Appearence on the Bullhouse

Yesterday I appeared on the Bullhouse podcast with Kenna for a very interesting discussion about a wide range of financial and economic topics. We discussed a number of different topics. Some of these were as follows: Whether there is a … Continue reading

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Systematic Detection of Housing Bubble – Part II: Linear Trends and Points-Based Detection

In the last piece on detecting housing market bubbles, I an through some of the problems with using standard-scoring. Here I will provide two solutions; one complex, the other simple. But before we move forward with this, we must understand … Continue reading

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Systematic Detection of Housing Bubble – Part I: Z-Scoring and It’s Problems

In a recent piece in Newsweek that got some attention, I made the case that the United States is currently experiencing a housing bubble. The next logical question is obvious: are other countries? After all, the 2008 meltdown was a … Continue reading

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Quantifying the Impact of Vaccine Failure on Earnings Per Share

In a post last week, I raised the possibility that the vaccines might not get the virus under control this winter. Since the markets still seem to be pricing in vaccine success, this could have implications for investors. How might … Continue reading

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Double Bubble Trouble

Two weeks ago I wrote a piece for Newsweek outlining potential troubles in the junk bond market. I pointed out that there is a strong possibility that enormous junk bond issuance is floating companies that otherwise would have gone bankrupt … Continue reading

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Vaccine Failure, Market Expectations and Inflated Valuations

For the last year and a half the biggest sentiment driver in markets has undoutedly been COVID-19. This is perfectly reasonable as the virus is probably the biggest single driver of variables that matter in financial markets – from inflation … Continue reading

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Inflation, Real Earnings and Recessions

In my previous post, I laid out some issues with the methodology being used to explore the relationship between inflation and asset prices. One issue that I raised was with respect to the observation that inflation below 1% seemed to … Continue reading

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Prolegomena to a Discussion of Inflation, Asset Returns and Real Earnings

Many today are examining the impact that inflation has on asset prices. One of the best papers on the topic is by Harvey et al and it is well worth a look. What I am going to write here does … Continue reading

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Why Lower Yield Treasuries Are More Attractive Than Higher Yield

In what follows, I want to draw out some implications of an interesting post by Greg Obenshain at Verdad Capital. In the post, Obenshain laid out data showing a number of things about Treasury bonds. Most notably, that they are … Continue reading

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