Category Archives: Uncategorized

As Evergrande looks about to default on its debt many are asking whether this might be a Lehman moment for China. That is, are we about to see a wave of defaults that bring down the Chinese financial system as … Continue reading →

I appeared on the Bullhouse podcast again to discuss some of the recent work I have done on inflation. I also talk about how the impact of COVID19 and the policy responses to it risk resulting in major labour shortages … Continue reading →

In our last post we saw that private sector indices for used car prices and for rent prices were highly predictive of future changes in the corresponding CPI component indices. The next logical step is obvious: we should use this … Continue reading →

Back in early August, my old colleague James Montier and I released a White Paper on inflation. In it we argued that our baseline scenario was that we would see transitory inflation caused by the extreme supply shocks caused by … Continue reading →

Yesterday I appeared on the Bullhouse podcast with Kenna for a very interesting discussion about a wide range of financial and economic topics. We discussed a number of different topics. Some of these were as follows: Whether there is a … Continue reading →

In a post last week, I raised the possibility that the vaccines might not get the virus under control this winter. Since the markets still seem to be pricing in vaccine success, this could have implications for investors. How might … Continue reading →

Two weeks ago I wrote a piece for Newsweek outlining potential troubles in the junk bond market. I pointed out that there is a strong possibility that enormous junk bond issuance is floating companies that otherwise would have gone bankrupt … Continue reading →

For the last year and a half the biggest sentiment driver in markets has undoutedly been COVID-19. This is perfectly reasonable as the virus is probably the biggest single driver of variables that matter in financial markets – from inflation … Continue reading →

In my previous post, I laid out some issues with the methodology being used to explore the relationship between inflation and asset prices. One issue that I raised was with respect to the observation that inflation below 1% seemed to … Continue reading →

Many today are examining the impact that inflation has on asset prices. One of the best papers on the topic is by Harvey et al and it is well worth a look. What I am going to write here does … Continue reading →