Monthly Archives: September 2021

FX Crises and the Trajectory of Interest Rates

Posted on September 22, 2021 by pilkingtonphil

In this post, I want to get a sense of foreign exchange crises since 2008. The data that I am using is taken from the World Bank. It is not perfect. It is a bit spotty and could be improved … Continue reading →

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Is China Facing a Minsky Moment?

Posted on September 21, 2021 by pilkingtonphil

As Evergrande looks about to default on its debt many are asking whether this might be a Lehman moment for China. That is, are we about to see a wave of defaults that bring down the Chinese financial system as … Continue reading →

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Inflation, the Quality Factor and Distribution

Posted on September 16, 2021 by pilkingtonphil

In a previous post I undertook a very simple analysis to show that factor investing during inflation helps investors to stop from simply treading water – at least, if history is any guide. An interlocutor asked if I’d looked into … Continue reading →

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Investing During Inflation

Posted on September 7, 2021 by pilkingtonphil

Recently I have been looking at whether inflation might be in the pipeline. The jury is still out on that, but caution would be wise given the current situation. That leads to a rather obvious question: what should investors do … Continue reading →

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Podcast on Inflation and Labour Shortages

Posted on September 6, 2021 by pilkingtonphil

I appeared on the Bullhouse podcast again to discuss some of the recent work I have done on inflation. I also talk about how the impact of COVID19 and the policy responses to it risk resulting in major labour shortages … Continue reading →

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Forecasting Future Inflation Using Private Sector Indices

Posted on September 2, 2021 by pilkingtonphil

In our last post we saw that private sector indices for used car prices and for rent prices were highly predictive of future changes in the corresponding CPI component indices. The next logical step is obvious: we should use this … Continue reading →

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