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Author Archives: pilkingtonphil
FX Crises and the Trajectory of Interest Rates
In this post, I want to get a sense of foreign exchange crises since 2008. The data that I am using is taken from the World Bank. It is not perfect. It is a bit spotty and could be improved … Continue reading
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Is China Facing a Minsky Moment?
As Evergrande looks about to default on its debt many are asking whether this might be a Lehman moment for China. That is, are we about to see a wave of defaults that bring down the Chinese financial system as … Continue reading
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Inflation, the Quality Factor and Distribution
In a previous post I undertook a very simple analysis to show that factor investing during inflation helps investors to stop from simply treading water – at least, if history is any guide. An interlocutor asked if I’d looked into … Continue reading
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Investing During Inflation
Recently I have been looking at whether inflation might be in the pipeline. The jury is still out on that, but caution would be wise given the current situation. That leads to a rather obvious question: what should investors do … Continue reading
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Podcast on Inflation and Labour Shortages
I appeared on the Bullhouse podcast again to discuss some of the recent work I have done on inflation. I also talk about how the impact of COVID19 and the policy responses to it risk resulting in major labour shortages … Continue reading
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Forecasting Future Inflation Using Private Sector Indices
In our last post we saw that private sector indices for used car prices and for rent prices were highly predictive of future changes in the corresponding CPI component indices. The next logical step is obvious: we should use this … Continue reading
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Using Private Sector Data to Forecast Future CPI Moves
Back in early August, my old colleague James Montier and I released a White Paper on inflation. In it we argued that our baseline scenario was that we would see transitory inflation caused by the extreme supply shocks caused by … Continue reading
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Podcast Appearence on the Bullhouse
Yesterday I appeared on the Bullhouse podcast with Kenna for a very interesting discussion about a wide range of financial and economic topics. We discussed a number of different topics. Some of these were as follows: Whether there is a … Continue reading
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Systematic Detection of Housing Bubble – Part II: Linear Trends and Points-Based Detection
In the last piece on detecting housing market bubbles, I an through some of the problems with using standard-scoring. Here I will provide two solutions; one complex, the other simple. But before we move forward with this, we must understand … Continue reading
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Systematic Detection of Housing Bubble – Part I: Z-Scoring and It’s Problems
In a recent piece in Newsweek that got some attention, I made the case that the United States is currently experiencing a housing bubble. The next logical question is obvious: are other countries? After all, the 2008 meltdown was a … Continue reading
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Fixing the Economists 