Author Archives: pilkingtonphil

About pilkingtonphil

Philip Pilkington is a macroeconomist and investment professional. Writing about all things macro and investment. Views my own.You can follow him on Twitter at @philippilk.

Inflation, the Quality Factor and Distribution

In a previous post I undertook a very simple analysis to show that factor investing during inflation helps investors to stop from simply treading water – at least, if history is any guide. An interlocutor asked if I’d looked into … Continue reading

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Investing During Inflation

Recently I have been looking at whether inflation might be in the pipeline. The jury is still out on that, but caution would be wise given the current situation. That leads to a rather obvious question: what should investors do … Continue reading

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Podcast on Inflation and Labour Shortages

I appeared on the Bullhouse podcast again to discuss some of the recent work I have done on inflation. I also talk about how the impact of COVID19 and the policy responses to it risk resulting in major labour shortages … Continue reading

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Forecasting Future Inflation Using Private Sector Indices

In our last post we saw that private sector indices for used car prices and for rent prices were highly predictive of future changes in the corresponding CPI component indices. The next logical step is obvious: we should use this … Continue reading

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Using Private Sector Data to Forecast Future CPI Moves

Back in early August, my old colleague James Montier and I released a White Paper on inflation. In it we argued that our baseline scenario was that we would see transitory inflation caused by the extreme supply shocks caused by … Continue reading

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Podcast Appearence on the Bullhouse

Yesterday I appeared on the Bullhouse podcast with Kenna for a very interesting discussion about a wide range of financial and economic topics. We discussed a number of different topics. Some of these were as follows: Whether there is a … Continue reading

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Systematic Detection of Housing Bubble – Part II: Linear Trends and Points-Based Detection

In the last piece on detecting housing market bubbles, I an through some of the problems with using standard-scoring. Here I will provide two solutions; one complex, the other simple. But before we move forward with this, we must understand … Continue reading

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Systematic Detection of Housing Bubble – Part I: Z-Scoring and It’s Problems

In a recent piece in Newsweek that got some attention, I made the case that the United States is currently experiencing a housing bubble. The next logical question is obvious: are other countries? After all, the 2008 meltdown was a … Continue reading

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Quantifying the Impact of Vaccine Failure on Earnings Per Share

In a post last week, I raised the possibility that the vaccines might not get the virus under control this winter. Since the markets still seem to be pricing in vaccine success, this could have implications for investors. How might … Continue reading

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Double Bubble Trouble

Two weeks ago I wrote a piece for Newsweek outlining potential troubles in the junk bond market. I pointed out that there is a strong possibility that enormous junk bond issuance is floating companies that otherwise would have gone bankrupt … Continue reading

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