Category Archives: Statistics and Probability

Academic Sophistry: Dart-Throwing Monkeys and the EMH

The other day I did a post on the Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH) that generated some discussion. I want to deal with a few of the issues raised in a some upcoming blogposts. One issue of interest was that many … Continue reading

Posted in Economic Theory, Market Analysis, Statistics and Probability | 24 Comments

The Efficient Markets Hypothesis Has Been Proved Wrong But Economists Do Not Want to Listen

The Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH) is wrong. It has been proved wrong. Do you think you’ve heard this before? You likely have, but the proof that you’ve heard that the EMH is wrong probably has not done the damage that … Continue reading

Posted in Economic Theory, Market Analysis, Statistics and Probability | 21 Comments

On Meta-Analysis in Economics

Did you know that if you are male and eat beans every Tuesday morning at exactly 8.30am you are more likely to marry a supermodel? No. That’s not true. I just made that up. But I hear of statistical studies … Continue reading

Posted in Statistics and Probability | 6 Comments

So-Called ‘Long-Run’ Monetarist Correlations and Non-Ergodicity

Just doing some quick house-cleaning on some previous posts. When I ran regressions plotting the money supply against the CPI I was told that I should average them over 5 year periods because this would supposedly iron out ‘volatility’ and … Continue reading

Posted in Economic Theory, Statistics and Probability | 15 Comments

What is a ‘Long-Run Trend’?

Everyone complains about his memory, and no one complains about his judgment. — Fran├žois de La Rochefoucauld In the comments to my post yesterday on monetarism the notion of the ‘long-run trend’ came up. A regular commenter ivansml insisted that … Continue reading

Posted in Statistics and Probability | 6 Comments

Moar Rethinking of Economics

Here’s an interview with Tony Lawson on economics, mathematics and ontology.

Posted in Economic Theory, Philosophy, Statistics and Probability | Leave a comment

Keynes and the “Fallacy of Aggregation” in Probability Theory

I recently came across a very nice lecture series by the philosopher Patrick Maher on Keynes’s discussions of probability (scroll down to the three Keynes lectures in this link — the other lectures are also worth a browse for those … Continue reading

Posted in Philosophy, Statistics and Probability | 8 Comments