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Category Archives: Statistics and Probability
Academic Sophistry: DartThrowing Monkeys and the EMH
The other day I did a post on the Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH) that generated some discussion. I want to deal with a few of the issues raised in a some upcoming blogposts. One issue of interest was that many … Continue reading
The Efficient Markets Hypothesis Has Been Proved Wrong But Economists Do Not Want to Listen
The Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH) is wrong. It has been proved wrong. Do you think you’ve heard this before? You likely have, but the proof that you’ve heard that the EMH is wrong probably has not done the damage that … Continue reading
On MetaAnalysis in Economics
Did you know that if you are male and eat beans every Tuesday morning at exactly 8.30am you are more likely to marry a supermodel? No. That’s not true. I just made that up. But I hear of statistical studies … Continue reading
Posted in Statistics and Probability
6 Comments
SoCalled ‘LongRun’ Monetarist Correlations and NonErgodicity
Just doing some quick housecleaning on some previous posts. When I ran regressions plotting the money supply against the CPI I was told that I should average them over 5 year periods because this would supposedly iron out ‘volatility’ and … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Theory, Statistics and Probability
15 Comments
What is a ‘LongRun Trend’?
Everyone complains about his memory, and no one complains about his judgment. — François de La Rochefoucauld In the comments to my post yesterday on monetarism the notion of the ‘longrun trend’ came up. A regular commenter ivansml insisted that … Continue reading
Posted in Statistics and Probability
6 Comments
Moar Rethinking of Economics
Here’s an interview with Tony Lawson on economics, mathematics and ontology.
Keynes and the “Fallacy of Aggregation” in Probability Theory
I recently came across a very nice lecture series by the philosopher Patrick Maher on Keynes’s discussions of probability (scroll down to the three Keynes lectures in this link — the other lectures are also worth a browse for those … Continue reading
Posted in Philosophy, Statistics and Probability
8 Comments
The Concept of Time Preference is Completely at Odds With Reality
A conversation that I was having yesterday reminded me of a rather funny point in economic theory. When we consider the value of a financial asset we take into two components: that is, it’s price and it’s income stream. It’s … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Theory, Statistics and Probability
29 Comments
A Man’s World: Is Gender the Key Explanatory Factor Behind the Modelling Tendency in Economics?
Some time ago I made a remark that the bias toward mathematical modelling in economics might have to do with the male bias of the discipline. More specifically, I argued that models provided a standin for the economist’s own person … Continue reading
John Hicks’ Book on NonErgodicity: A Forgotten PostKeynesian Classic
Lars Syll recently provided an interesting quote from John Hicks’ 1979 book Causality in Economics. I thought that what Hicks said made an awful lot of sense, so I got my hands on a copy of the book. I have … Continue reading