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Category Archives: Market Analysis
The CAPM and the Non-Ergodic Axiom
While doing my dissertation on constructing a new theory of asset-pricing I became exposed to some contemporary theories. To be frank, I didn’t really know how to integrate them because they seemed to be ether (a) intuitively incorrect or (b) … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Theory, Market Analysis
1 Comment
The (Brief) Rise and (Inevitable) Fall of Gold
Gold fell rather precipitously yesterday and it appears that many in the markets are scratching their heads. “Why,” they think, “is gold falling in price in the face of a looming government shutdown and a recent indication by the Fed … Continue reading
Posted in Market Analysis
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How Does QE Work and What Does It Really Do?
After my previous post on the QE taper there was some discussion on the INET YSI Commons Facebook page about the QE programs. I think it might be constructive to sum up what was there discussed as it provides a … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Policy, Market Analysis
38 Comments
The Fed’s QE Taper: Downsides and Upsides
Izabella Kaminska over at FT Alphaville recently ran an interesting piece on QE. Her main argument for QE was that it attempted to put the squeeze on rich folks and that might not be bad for an unbalanced economy. Her … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Policy, Market Analysis
1 Comment
How Do Stock-Flow Relations Work in Economics and Are They Inappropriate for Price Dynamics?
The other day I did a post on the work of Katharina Pistor and included some very broad details of something related that I’m working on. Despite me saying clearly and multiple times in the piece that I was massively … Continue reading
How to Forecast the Stock Market from a Macro Perspective
My letter to the Financial Times regarding the recent article discussing stock market fragility and the debate over the interpretation of data between Robert Shiller and Jeremy Siegel has been published. In the letter I try to draw attention to … Continue reading
Posted in Market Analysis, Media/Journalism
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Oil Speculation and Syria: A Microstudy
There is nothing more irritating than an economist looking at you skeptically when you talk about speculation in certain markets and saying: “go on then, cook up a study and prove it is taking place”. What they mean is that … Continue reading
Posted in Market Analysis
3 Comments
Naked and Free, Economics Without Models: A Response to Grasselli
Well, Grasselli has responded to my previous post. His response, full as it is with personal attacks, bile and insinuations is pretty embarrassing; Grasselli hasn’t yet learned that a rapid, heated exchange on Facebook is a little different from a … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Theory, Market Analysis
1 Comment
The Mystery of Rising Excess Oil Capacity and Rising Prices
The following is an article that I wrote for FTAlphaville that was never run. Quite a number of people think that financial market dynamics are substantially distorting the price of oil. FT Alphaville’s own Izabella Kaminska has laid out in … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Policy, Market Analysis
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More on Oil Market Speculation: Correction and Clarification
The other day Dean Baker ran a piece on the aluminium market scam that some of the major banks are currently involved in (more info here). I got onto Dean with regards to what he wrote on oil market speculation. … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Policy, Market Analysis
1 Comment
Fixing the Economists 