Category Archives: Market Analysis

Financial Markets in Keynesian Macroeconomic Theory 101

Yesterday when I published my post on Krugman and the vulgar Keynesians not understanding the meaning to the term ‘liquidity trap’ I came to realise that many readers — both sympathetic and hostile — do not really understand the Keynesian … Continue reading

Posted in Economic Theory, Market Analysis | 20 Comments

Stock Market Crash!

Did that title get your attention? I’d imagine that it did. There’s nothing like predictions of a crashing stock market to get the attention of readers. Well, I’m not quite willing to make any firm predictions. Rather I want to … Continue reading

Posted in Market Analysis | 14 Comments

Housing Bubble Redux

A piece I did for Al Jazeera on the IMF warnings of a potential global housing bubble. Here we go again. Will real estate bubbles again sink the global economy?

Posted in Economic Policy, Market Analysis, Media/Journalism | 4 Comments

Has the UK Got Another Property Bubble?

I note that Lord Keynes has a post up on property prices in the UK in which he says that they’re in a bubble. I’ll get to that in a moment but first I want to show how messy the … Continue reading

Posted in Market Analysis | 14 Comments

Could a Russian Intervention in the Ukraine Burst the London Property Market?

Over and over again I’ve been asking myself: is there a housing bubble in London? Certainly house prices are booming but I was never comfortable calling a bubble in the typical sense of that word. Why? Because this didn’t look … Continue reading

Posted in Market Analysis | 3 Comments

Ergodicity Versus History: A Critical Commentary on the Work of Ole Peters

Lars Syll linked to a fantastic interview with the mathematician Ole Peters the other day that dealt with the topic of ergodicity and how it relates to economic and financial markets. First, a comment on the source. The interview was … Continue reading

Posted in Economic Theory, Market Analysis, Statistics and Probability | 5 Comments

OMG Tapering!

Well, it seems that the Fed has finally decided to initiate the much talked about ‘taper’ of the QE program. The proposed taper will wind down asset purchases by $10bn a month. That means that they won’t actually stop or … Continue reading

Posted in Market Analysis, Media/Journalism, Psychology | 31 Comments

Yanis Varoufakis Publishes Some of My Ramblings on the State of Ireland

Yanis emailed me for my thoughts on Ireland’s recent return to the bond market. He has published his own analysis with mine thrown in at the end here. Note the Freudian slip wherein I misspell ‘Fianna Fail’, who are the … Continue reading

Posted in Economic Policy, Market Analysis | 4 Comments

Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) and the Exchange Rate

There is a theory that floats around out there called the ‘Purchasing Power Parity theory of the Exchange Rate’ — or something to that effect, the name seems to change depending on what source you go to. The theory, stripped … Continue reading

Posted in Economic History, Economic Theory, Market Analysis | 6 Comments

Why the Fall in Gold Prices Will Not Let Up

Here we take a quick break from our scheduled program so that I can brag a little and buttress the points I’ve been making about the gold market. Back in July of this year I pointed out that gold had … Continue reading

Posted in Market Analysis | 1 Comment