Category Archives: Market Analysis

FX Crises and the Trajectory of Interest Rates

In this post, I want to get a sense of foreign exchange crises since 2008. The data that I am using is taken from the World Bank. It is not perfect. It is a bit spotty and could be improved … Continue reading

Posted in Asset Market Research | Leave a comment

Inflation, the Quality Factor and Distribution

In a previous post I undertook a very simple analysis to show that factor investing during inflation helps investors to stop from simply treading water – at least, if history is any guide. An interlocutor asked if I’d looked into … Continue reading

Posted in Asset Market Research | Leave a comment

Investing During Inflation

Recently I have been looking at whether inflation might be in the pipeline. The jury is still out on that, but caution would be wise given the current situation. That leads to a rather obvious question: what should investors do … Continue reading

Posted in Asset Market Research | Leave a comment

Systematic Detection of Housing Bubble – Part II: Linear Trends and Points-Based Detection

In the last piece on detecting housing market bubbles, I an through some of the problems with using standard-scoring. Here I will provide two solutions; one complex, the other simple. But before we move forward with this, we must understand … Continue reading

Posted in Asset Market Research | 1 Comment

Systematic Detection of Housing Bubble – Part I: Z-Scoring and It’s Problems

In a recent piece in Newsweek that got some attention, I made the case that the United States is currently experiencing a housing bubble. The next logical question is obvious: are other countries? After all, the 2008 meltdown was a … Continue reading

Posted in Asset Market Research | Leave a comment

On Gold Buggery

My piece on gold bugs, their culture and their silliness is now online at The New Internationalist website for all you lousy folks that didn’t bother picking up a copy. It was one of the most fun pieces I ever … Continue reading

Posted in Economic History, Economic Policy, Market Analysis, Media/Journalism | 10 Comments

Academic Sophistry: Dart-Throwing Monkeys and the EMH

The other day I did a post on the Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH) that generated some discussion. I want to deal with a few of the issues raised in a some upcoming blogposts. One issue of interest was that many … Continue reading

Posted in Economic Theory, Market Analysis, Statistics and Probability | 24 Comments

The Efficient Markets Hypothesis Has Been Proved Wrong But Economists Do Not Want to Listen

The Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH) is wrong. It has been proved wrong. Do you think you’ve heard this before? You likely have, but the proof that you’ve heard that the EMH is wrong probably has not done the damage that … Continue reading

Posted in Economic Theory, Market Analysis, Statistics and Probability | 22 Comments

Confusing Accounting Identities With Behavioral Equations

Here’s an interesting little debate from earlier this year that I came across yesterday evening. It is between a number of market analysts over whether the current stock market is overvalued. Why is that interesting? Because the argument is focused on … Continue reading

Advertisement

Posted in Economic Theory, Market Analysis | 25 Comments

Meanwhile, in the Meeja

I have written a piece for Al Jazeera on Janet Yellen’s recent comments on specific asset markets. This is a big turning point for the Fed but it leads to major contradictions in their policy goals. Fed’s targeting of asset … Continue reading

Posted in Market Analysis, Media/Journalism | Leave a comment