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Author Archives: pilkingtonphil
How to Forecast the Stock Market from a Macro Perspective
My letter to the Financial Times regarding the recent article discussing stock market fragility and the debate over the interpretation of data between Robert Shiller and Jeremy Siegel has been published. In the letter I try to draw attention to … Continue reading
Posted in Market Analysis, Media/Journalism
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A Response to Matheus Grasselli on Probability and Law
Matheus Grasselli has responded once more to one of my posts. The unfortunate part is that he has dragged some other poor souls into the quagmire of misunderstanding and poor reading. I suppose its now on me — having brought … Continue reading
Posted in Statistics and Probability
13 Comments
Probabilities: Keynesian Legal Versus Bayesian Mathematical
Lars Syll has (once again) directed me to a fascinating piece, this time by John Kay. Kay starts the piece by noting that in a recent legal case in Britain the judge was asked to define the term “beyond reasonable … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Theory, Statistics and Probability
2 Comments
Marginalist Microeconomics as Authoritarian Poison
“The world itself is the will to power — and nothing else! And you yourself are the will to power — and nothing else!” – Friedrich Nietzsche Lars Syll has directed me to an interesting post by Ole Rogeberg. It … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Theory
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What Do IQ Tests Really Measure?
IQ. What is it all about? In our society it is generally seen as a sort of symbol of social status. So much so that some join groups like Mensa in order to hang out with other high IQ people … Continue reading
Posted in Psychology
1 Comment
Clarity and Obfuscation in the Use of Mathematics for Economic Reasoning
The Tony Lawson paper discussed on this blog the other day seems already to have begun to cause ripples in the heterodox community. The Real World Economics Review Blog has run a piece by Lars Syll on the paper and … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Theory, Philosophy
8 Comments
Playing Humpty Dumpty: More on the Definition of “Balance of Payments Crisis”
“When I use a word,” Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, “it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.” My previous piece on the Kaldorians and their insistence on misusing well-established economic … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Theory
11 Comments
Can a Country Without a Currency Have a Currency Crisis?
It is often the case that whole debates rest on a misunderstanding or lack of clarity over the definition of key terms. Take the ongoing debates between the group I label as the Kaldorians and the Modern Monetary Theorists (MMTers) … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Theory
70 Comments
Empty Theory: A Response to James R McLean on Michael Emmet Brady’s Purported Theories of Decision-Making
James R McLean has written a fairly coherent piece on my challenge to Michael Emmet Brady. He has also given me a rather nice point of departure with which to make my case against Brady. He has done so by … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Theory, Philosophy, Psychology
5 Comments
Oil Speculation and Syria: A Microstudy
There is nothing more irritating than an economist looking at you skeptically when you talk about speculation in certain markets and saying: “go on then, cook up a study and prove it is taking place”. What they mean is that … Continue reading
Posted in Market Analysis
3 Comments
Fixing the Economists 