Monthly Archives: September 2013

Keynes’ Philosophy: Induction, Analogy and Probability

In a recent post I dealt with Keynes’ opinions on the application of statistics and theories based on probability (e.g. econometrics). There I noted that Keynes thought that much applied work failed because it improperly deployed the use of Analogy … Continue reading

Posted in Philosophy, Statistics and Probability | 2 Comments

Long Live Hydraulic Keynesianism: Krugman on Godley and Vernengo on Krugman

The other day I commented on a piece that was run in the NYT on Wynne Godley and other Levy Institute scholars. Since then Paul Krugman has weighed in on the debate and Matias Vernengo has responded. Even though I’ve … Continue reading

Posted in Economic Theory | 18 Comments

Keynes on the Use and Abuse of Statistics and Probability

Much of Keynes’ A Treatise on Probability appears to have been written with the popularisation of the study of statistics that was emerging at the turn of the 20th century in mind. This makes it a rather remarkable document because … Continue reading

Posted in Statistics and Probability | 2 Comments

The Model that Maketh the Man? Wynne Godley in the NYT

The New York Times recently ran an article appraising the work of Wynne Godley and his colleagues and followers. This is fantastic. It is great to see this approach to economics, which the NYT rightly notes predicted the 2008 crash, … Continue reading

Posted in Economic Theory, Media/Journalism | Leave a comment

The Origins of Both Endogenous Money and the Industrial Revolution

The latest issue of the Review of Keynesian Economics (ROKE) is out and it looks like this publication is taking off fast. It includes, among other things, an introduction by the president of the Argentinian central bank (which is available … Continue reading

Posted in Economic History | 5 Comments

Holey Models: A Final Response to Matheus Grasselli

Matheus Grasselli has responded to some of my previous posts (in the comments on this post) and some comments I made on the Facebook Young INET page. His points were as I thought they would be — indeed, I have … Continue reading

Posted in Economic Theory, Philosophy, Statistics and Probability | 3 Comments

Probability and The Principle of Indifference in Applied Economic Reasoning

Carola Binder has brought my attention to a very commendable post she did regarding how people perceive their chances of being laid off. The results, from the point of view of the application of probability theory to economics, were very … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 3 Comments

Bayesianism and Non-Ergodicity in Economics

The atomic hypothesis which has worked so splendidly in Physics breaks down in Psychics. We are faced at every turn with the problems of Organic Unity, of Discreteness, of Discontinuity – the whole is not equal to the sum of … Continue reading

Posted in Statistics and Probability | 5 Comments

The Bayesian Cult: Threatening Those Who Refuse to Fall Into Line

I thought it might be worthwhile to follow up my previous posts on probabilities with one in which I first of all clarify one or two points and second of all show why certain people are attracted to Bayesian statistics. … Continue reading

Posted in Statistics and Probability | Leave a comment

How to Forecast the Stock Market from a Macro Perspective

My letter to the Financial Times regarding the recent article discussing stock market fragility and the debate over the interpretation of data between Robert Shiller and Jeremy Siegel has been published. In the letter I try to draw attention to … Continue reading

Posted in Market Analysis, Media/Journalism | Leave a comment